The 12-Team College Football Playoff is Here
After years of anticipation, we've finally arrived at a tournament bracket for college football. But at what cost?
It’s finally here folks. This afternoon, Notre Dame and Indiana will face off in the first of 11 games in the 12-team College Football Playoff.
I’m very excited. With how much parity there was in the game this year, truly anything could happen once these games get underway.
But, as an NCAA and College Football cynic, I want to take this moment to remember what it is we’ve had to sacrifice to get to this point.
The chain of events that led us here started with the exit of USC and UCLA from the PAC 12 to the Big 10. A year ago, I outlined how the CFP Committee took advantage of that opportunity by going back on their word and accelerating their way towards a 12-team playoff. That break down is in the video below:
The PAC 12 as we knew it was sacrificed for these games. Don’t forget that.
We’ve also lost the allure of non-playoff bowl games. Not many people, including myself, watched games outside of the New Year’s Six this past decade. Even during the latter years of the four-team CFP, I was tuning out the Baylor-Ole Miss Sugar Bowl type matchups.
Trying to Give a Damn
But this year, I haven’t even been able to pretend like I care. I usually will attempt one of the Bowl Mania challenges (excuse me, the Capital One Bowl Mania) with friends or just for fun to see how I do. This year? I saved my entry fee. That’s one more bracket pool in March is what that is.
I have no intention of going out of my way to watch one of the peon bowls. Bama-Michigan? Saw the cool version in person last year. Don’t care for the sad one. UConn-UNC? If there’s no Bill Belichick or Dan Hurley, I’m out. Iowa St.-Miami? Don’t need to watch two teams who fell flat on their face to end the year duke it out to see who was a little less fraudulent.
Even BYU-Colorado, which is the best of the bunch and has the 4:30 time slot on ABC the Saturday before New Year’s, can’t get me excited, even if Deion says Colorado’s stars will play. My craving for football will be satiated by the CFP, and I have no need for a glorified conference matchup.
The new format succeeded in reviving the New Year’s Six bowls (or killing them, depending how you look at it), but right now the remaining 36 are being used purely as billboards and nothing else.
The Give Me Your Money Stupid Loser Bowl
The names of these games are getting out of hand. It’s been bad for a while, but they’re getting worse every time I check in again. Here’s a few of the lamest ones:
StaffDNA Cure Bowl - winner gets vaccinated, loser gets Covid
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl - winner doesn’t get evicted
68 Ventures Bowl - winner gets a timeshare in the Gulf Coast
Some bowl organizers have truly said fuck it though and come out with some cool names and brand deals. Here are my favorites:
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Non-playoff bowl games are just opportunities for advertisers to nestle their company next to two collegiate brands. To make a profit, or try and break even, on these dying events, the ad revenue is being pumped in at every singular opportunity possible.
Even if ticket sales for these games were good, ads would still be this prevalent. But ticket sales aren’t just bad, they’re a joke.
An Empty Bowl
I was at the Art of Sport LA Bowl hosted by Gronk a few days ago. The game was between Cal and UNLV at SoFi stadium. Tickets were only being sold for the lower bowl, meaning the 100 and 200 level sections (SoFi goes up to the 600s). Within just those two levels, the stadium was probably 30% filled. There were entire sections empty behind the endzones. We were getting repeat fans on the jumbotron. I could hear Cal fans chanting from across the stadium. I repeat, I could hear Cal fans.
I know that Cal and UNLV aren’t exactly two fan bases known for their turnout, but they’re both within a five-hour drive from LA and have a large presence in the city. Location had nothing to do with attendance, something I can’t say for the next bowl I’m going to attend, the DirecTV Holiday Bowl in San Diego between Washington St. and Syracuse.
I don’t know if there’s a farther distance between a D1 football team and a stadium than Syracuse, NY and San Diego, CA. Maybe UW to Miami? Regardless, I will be impressed by any Cuse fans that make the trek two days after Christmas to Southern California. I also don’t believe that Washington St. fans, who have hardly cared much about anything but drinking and partying in my personal experience, will show out for their PAC 2 team that’s already lost its offensive coordinator, head coach and starting QB.
Take a Ride Through the Transfer Portal
And that’s my last point about all of these games. Opt-outs have always been a thing. Draft prospects sitting out is nothing new. But what is new are players who are going to play next season being forced to excuse themselves from their team’s bowl games because they have to enter the transfer portal.
For Wazzu, their star QB John Mateer is already an Oklahoma Sooner. What should be an electric matchup of offenses is going to be tuned down not because one team’s QB is preserving his health for his future in the NFL, but because he’s on a new team, with a new paycheck, just three weeks after playing his final regular season game.
Beau Pribula is the worst example of this new phenomenon. Beau was Penn State’s backup QB this year and got decent run when the Nittany Lions needed him as both the backup and with specific packages. Now that Penn State’s starting QB, Drew Allar, declared that he would return next year, Beau entered the transfer portal. He was then left with a choice. Leave Penn State now in order to give himself the best opportunity to be picked up by a team he wanted to join, or stay with the team through their run and let every other QB in the NCAA get wined and dined in the most pivotal part of the process.
Penn State Head Coach James Franklin was in support of Pribula’s ultimate decision, which was to leave the team and look out for himself. Coaches like Franklin are the biggest critics of the entire situation. If you don’t believe me, listen to Nick Saban, who quit coaching because of the way the sport has changed.
It’s great that players have opportunities to make money on their name, image and likeness. It’s great that they have rights. It’s just a wild west out here right now, and I blame the continual lack of effort, care and foresight coming from the top of the NCAA for all of it.
But nonetheless, the 12-team playoff is here. Once Indiana-Notre Dame kicks off this evening, we’ll forget everything and be overcome with exhilaration and dopamine. It’s going to rock.
Here’s how I think things shake out:
No. 10 Indiana – No. 7 Notre Dame (-7)
If you were of the thinking that Ohio State was always going to outmatch Indiana in the regular season matchup with talent and physicality, you have to feel the same about the Irish. Notre Dame plays really hard, and they’ve done nothing but dominate inferior opponents all season long. Indiana was a great, great story, and I think this in-state game will be a spectacle, but give me the Irish and the points.
No. 11 SMU – No. 6 Penn State (-8.5)
The most ridiculous looking game on paper. SMU, a team from Texas who is now representing not just a power conference but the Atlantic Coast Conference, is traveling to Happy Valley, PA to play a game in the middle of December against Penn State, who doesn’t have a single signature win in the past five years yet has arguably the easiest path to the championship this year.
That ACC Championship game went perfectly for Clemson, and SMU still almost pulled it out. I like their fight and their players to give Penn State a bit of a run for their money. Franklin has a 1-13 record against top-5 teams as the Nittany Lions’ head coach. SMU isn’t quite a top-5 team, and the cold and best home crowd in the country is a huge edge. I’ll take Penn State, but don’t hate SMU with the points.
No. 12 Clemson – No. 5 Texas (-12)
If Texas wins this game, they will have one win this season against a currently ranked team. It’s not Georgia on the other sideline, so they probably aren’t too scared. Like I said, Clemson played a perfect game in the ACC Championship (0 penalties) and almost lost. Quinn Ewers has played in big moments, so I trust him enough to get it done in this spot. 12 points is a lot, but I’ll take Texas to win.
No. 9 Tennessee – No. 8 Ohio St. (-7.5)
I’ve been back and forth on this game. I’ve been saying to people that Ohio St. has great value to win the whole thing after their loss, because they’re a great team who just has a problem with beating Michigan. If it’s not the Wolverines across the field on the other sideline, Ryan Day and the Buckeyes are usually fine.
But Tennessee looks a lot like Michigan. They have a great D-Line. Ohio St.’s weakness is their O-Line. The difference is that the Volunteers have a QB who can complete a pass, making them twice as dangerous on offense.
I’m going to trust that Ohio St. figures out why their gameplan against Michigan didn’t work, revamps it, and pulls this one out. But if Tennessee makes a statement, I won’t be surprised.
Quarterfinals:
No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 2 Georgia
A backup QB will come to haunt them at some point, and Notre Dame is sound enough, and tough enough, to take advantage.
No. 4 Arizona St. over No. 5 Texas
Give me the Sun Devils as this year’s Cinderella. Kenny Dillingham will be unleashing his playbook all over Steve Sarkisian’s timid ass (pause). Cam Skattebo will show the world what he’s about.
No. 6 Penn State over No. 3 Boise St.
Penn State is going to be weathered by this point in the season, in a good way. I think they find a way to bottle up Jeanty enough to force Boise into passing games.
No. 8 Ohio St. over No. 1 Oregon
A rematch of the game of the year. Ohio St. was a few plays away from getting it done in Autzen, so why shouldn’t they be able to do it in the Grandaddy of them all.
Semifinals:
No. 8 Ohio St. over No. 4 Arizona St.
There will be too much talent on the field for ASU to overcome. The Sun Devils’ road ends in the semifinals.
No. 7 Notre Dame over No. 6 Penn State
Remember that record against top-5 teams for Franklin? Just when everyone gets their hopes up for Penn State is when they’ll turn back into a pumpkin.
Championship:
No. 8 Ohio St. over No. 7 Notre Dame
Using the Michigan loss as fuel to dump all over their fire, the Buckeyes will find a way to rally and pull out a National Championship. Jeremiah Smith will be an icon by the time it’s all said and done.
Friday night is a good primer, but Saturday, with the NFL mixed in, will prove to be an incredible day.
Writing this after the Blazers-Nuggets game, where Anfernee hit a game-winner. Go watch the highlights of that one if you’re a bored Blazer fan.
God I miss when UW was in this spot last year.